Weakening global economic conditions worsened in Europe and the United States (U.S.), making the Ministry of Commerce (Ministry of Trade) must prepare a worst case scenario that the exports of 2012 will go down.
Director General of Foreign Trade Ministry of Trade, Deddy Saleh, said that, if the debt crisis in Europe continues to drag on and the budget deficit in the U.S. is still a constraint weakening demand from Indonesia, the performance of the export value in 2012 could drop up to 20%.
Ministry of Trade predict the realization of the value of exports in 2011 could reach U.S. $ 200 billion. That means, the value of exports in the next year could be only about U.S. $ 160 billion. "But the optimistic predictions of our exports in 2012 will only drop 10% or at least stagnate it is good," said Deddy.
The manufacturing sector is predicted to be the sectors hardest hit by the global crisis in the next year. Meanwhile, exports of primary commodities such as crude palm oil (CPO) can still continue. Because Europe must inevitably take the CPO so that they must continue to import.
Impact of world economic slowdown on the Indonesia export performance is starting to look real. For instance, the total export value in October 2011 decreased 4.2% to U.S. $ 16.8 billion than the previous month. However,realization of export from January to October 2011 is still up 34.9% over the same period in 2010.
Meanwhile, Indonesia's exports to the EU in October 2011 rose 6.2% compared to September 2011. And Indonesia's exports for the same period to the United States is still growing 17.2%.
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Indonesia coffee export performance worse off. International Coffee Organization (ICO) noted, Indonesia's coffee exports in September 2011 just as much as 225 000 sacks or 13,500 tones. This figure is down 35.71% from August 2011 of 350,000 bags or 21,000 tones.
Sabam Malau, Chairman of North Sumatra Coffee Forum (NSCF), said the decline in the volume of coffee exports was due to several things. First, the coffee exporters tend to hold the sale because of waiting for high prices. Second, high production costs make coffee exporters prefer to sell to the domestic market.
Third, winches fruit pest of coffee (PBKo) that attack the coffee beans to make the production go down. "It also affected the economic turmoil that hit the United States and Europe," said Sabam.
The volume of coffee exports in September this year too muddy when compared to the volume of export in September last year. Citing the ICO data, September 2010, the volume of Indonesia's export 650,000 bags (39,000 tons) or exceed 65.38%, compared to September.
In addition to falling export volumes, coffee prices plummeted participate in the international market. Average daily price of robusta coffee in September is U.S. $ 2.13 cents per pound. As for October, down to U.S. $ 1.93 cents per pound. Sadarsah, exporters of coffee from Sumatra, said the decline in export volumes of coffee because the coffee crisis happened because virtually the entire world that its impact is still felt to this day.
While world coffee prices declined, but Sabam said the price of coffee beans in the local market tends to increase. Sabam pointed out, during the last 2 weeks the price of grain coffee beans from IDR 20,000 per kg – IDR 21,000 per kg, raise to IDR 26,000 per kg – IDR 27,000 per kg. As for the price of coffee beans already shelled condition, which was IDR 50,000 per kg become IDR 64,000 per kg – IDR 65,000 per kg. "I also wonder why this could happen," said Sabam.
Trend of rising prices of coffee beans at the farm level because coffee exporters make purchases that are higher than the standard price. "If the first exporters profited $ 20,000, now they are for-to the farmers," said Sabam.
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Woven fabrics and apparels products from Indonesia subject to additional custom tax by the Turkish authorities because they are flooding the Turkish’s domestic market. Though the two products were not manufactured locally Turkish industry.
"Indonesia is actually fills the market products not manufactured by the Turkish domestic industry," said Director of Trade Security International Cooperation Directorate Ministry of Trade Ernawati.
Woven fabrics products from Indonesia was subjected to an additional import duty of 18% with minimum requirement of U.S.$ 1 per kilogram (kg) and a maximum of U.S.$ 4 per kg. As for apparels products by 27% with minimum requirement of U.S.$ 4.5 per kg and a maximum of U.S.$ 18 per kg.
Imposition of additional duties assigned by the Department of Safeguards in the Turkish Ministry of Economics on September 15, 2011 following the announcement of the results of the safeguard investigation on these products. Safeguard investigation was conducted at the request of the petitioners who are representatives of various members of the Turkey Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
According to Ernawati, the Indonesian government has given in writing and direct rebuttal hearings held on the Turkish authorities on March 7, 2011. The charges are given at two products from Indonesia, she said, is not coupled with a strong foundation for the investigation of security measures (safeguards). Therefore, there is no evidence of serious loss or threat of loss experienced by the local industry.
In addition, she continued, Turkish authorities should limit the accusations against cotton products just because the results of industrial production in Turkey's domestic cotton. In fact, Indonesia exported woven fabrics of artificial staple fibers/synthetic filament.
Actually, during the investigation that took place since January 13, 2011 the government has coordinated with the exporters and producers from Indonesia represented by Indonesia Textile Association (API). In fact, when answering the questionnaire, Indonesia was cooperatively run it according to specified time Turkey.
According to data Trademap, the export value of woven fabrics from Indonesia to Turkey in 2008 is U.S.$ 197 million. That number increased slightly to U.S. $ 199 million in 2009. The export value also jumped to U.S.$ 292 million in 2010. For apparels product, export value in 2008 amounted to U.S.$ 12.6 million. That value had dropped in 2009 to U.S.$ 9.6 million, but rose again to U.S.$ 17.5 million in 2010.
Turkey, Ernawati said, was not the main countries of export destination both products. However, the country has a potential market with a market share of around 30% of Indonesia's total exports. Indonesia's largest export market share for products woven fabrics are Japan and China. While Indonesia's largest export destination for apparels products are the United States and the European Union.
Ministry of Industry worrying the European Union financial problems will affect the Indonesia export to Europe. Because, Greece's debt problems spread to other countries in Europe which has the potential to expand the region's financial crisis.
"For me Europe is not too optimistic. Especially if you look at the debt structure of large countries," said Director General of International Cooperation Ministry of Industry Industry, Agus Tjahayana.
According to him, Greece's debt problems will be difficult to prolonged unresolved because the three countries, namely Germany, France, and Britain is expected to help bail out Greece's debt was in trouble. In fact, Germany was difficult to expand its export market as China slammed aggression. "The possibility of its condition deteriorated," he said.
In fact, Indonesia's exports to the EU during the period 2007-2010 recorded an average increase of 9%. That number exceeds the import of industrial products from Europe which reached 8%. In 2010 Indonesia's trade balance with the EU surplus of U.S. $ 4.5 billion.
The amount was donated processed coconut or palm oil with a market share of 20%, textiles and textile products 14.5%, electronics 10.5%, 10.5% of processed rubber, and footwear or shoes 8%.
In fact, certain products have increased sharply as exports of other chemical products rose 147%, 59.4% of other commodities, cigarettes rose by 28.7%, and sports equipment 26.5%.
Unfortunately, the market penetration of industrial products to the EU is still relatively low with an average of about 0.5%. It is actually according to Agus could be an opportunity to expand market share of Indonesian exports. However, the region's financial condition would likely delay the planned expansion of Indonesia's exports.
"It is possible that down then the condition will remain stagnant because Europe needs these commodities," he said.
As with the financial problems the United States. According to Agus, the condition of the country was not too worried because the position of United States economic growth which is growing despite the crisis.
Country's internal political problems that make the financial problems the United States as unresolved. However, he believes, the country will find the solution of the problem.
As a result, most likely the United States - Indonesia trade will be stagnant for some time. Even if rising then the condition is a result of the appreciation of the yuan currency, the rupiah (IDR), Singapore dollar, ringgit, baht and peso. "The effect would be all for all countries for the same commodity," he said.
Indonesia Trade Minister Marie Elka Pangestu also ever mentioned her concern at the condition of the European Union's financial problems. "Compared to the United States, we are more worried about conditions in Europe," she said.
To maintain the level of Indonesia exports due to the decline in market share in both areas, Marie expressed, should be done by enhancing competitiveness, increasing diversification of export markets, and minimize the high cost.
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Indonesia's export performance in May 2011 has a new record in history. The realization of exports in May exceeded the previous history which occurred in April 2011.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS-Statistics Indonesia) recorded, the realization of Indonesia exports in May through U.S. $ 18.33 billion or exceed the performance in April 2011 which reached U.S. $ 16 billion. "Export is a supreme achievement, a new record because it can penetrate more than U.S. $ 16-17 billion, ie U.S. $ 18.33 billion, "BPS chief Rusman Heriawan said on Friday (1 / 7).
Export performance has increased by 45.29% compared to same period previous year. When compared to April 2011, exports increased 10.76%. Indonesia's total exports for the calendar year 2011 or January-May 2011 reached U.S. $ 80.28 billion, growing 33.37% over the same period the previous year.
In terms of commodities, the largest portion is still held by mineral fuels with a value of U.S. $ 9.75 billion, followed by fats and oils of animal / vegetable which reached U.S. $ 8.09 billion. Rusman admitted, an increase in export performance is inseparable from the rise in world commodity prices, particularly the surge in oil prices or crude palm oil (CPO).
In terms of export destination countries, Japan is still the largest with a value of U.S. $ 7.35 billion. The second xxport destination is occupied by China amounted to U.S. $ 7.01 billion, followed by the United States U.S. $ 6.56 billion, the ASEAN countries amounted to U.S. $ 13.77 billion and the EU amounted to U.S. $ 8.68 billion. "Despite the tsunami, Japan is still the largest market share," he said.
Based on the sector, exports for January-May 2011 dominated the industrial sector 61.74%, up from earlier that only 60.43% in the previous month. Improved export performance is also coupled with heightened realization of import in May 2011. The value of Indonesian imports for May 2011 reached U.S. $ 14.83 billion, an increase of 48.54% over the same period the previous year. "The month on month (mom) in total imports fell 0.42%. But for non-oil rose 0.24%. That oil imports are down, "he explained.
If refer to the calendar year, total imports from January to May 2011 reached U.S. $ 68.51 billion, an increase of 33.86%. Non-oil imports reached U.S. $ 52.53 billion, and the largest portion of the mechanical engine of U.S. $ 9.1 billion. Imports from China amounted to U.S. $ 9.74 billion, while Japan is only U.S. $ 7.08 billion and Thailand at U.S. $ 4.28 billion. Imports from China are the largest imports.
Rusman added that overall, the trade balance in May 2011 still recorded a surplus of U.S. $ 3.51 billion and for the period January-May 2011 amounted to U.S. $ 11.77 billion.
Director of Distribution Statistics BPS, Satwiko Darmesto add as much as 61% increase in exports boosted non-oil industries. "Commodities are mineral fuels, vegetable oils, rubber, rubber goods, machinery and electrical equipment, seed crust and metallic ash," he explained.
Meanwhile, foreign trade balance for the month of May amounted to U.S. $ 3.059 billion. "As for the difference in the trade balance from the beginning of the year to May amounted to U.S. $ 11 billion," he said.
Satwiko claimed Indonesia export performance in May is the greatest achievement in history. "The record is not only alone but the total exports of the sector also increased as oil and gas exports of U.S. $ 4.1011,9 billion, and especially non-oil hit a record U.S. $ 14, so that 222.2 and a total of U.S. $ 18, 334.1,"lid.
CLASSIFIED assessments of Guantanamo Bay War on Terror prisoners to Wikileaks include a Pakistani-national Saifullah Paracha, who worked as a New York City travel agent, report his detailed knowledge of the export/import business to smuggle radioactive and nuclear weapons in shipping containers of clothing.
The 63-year-old has been held at the Guantanamo Bay prison following his arrest in 2003 in Thailand when his son Uzair, now serving a 30-year sentence for terrorism-related charges, provided information of his links with al Qaeda since the 9/11 terror attacks on the US.
Paracha allegedly used his international shipping expertise to provide a small group headed by 9/11 planner Khalid Sheikh Mohammed with information regarding port security. He noted his concern to the group trying to smuggle plastic explosives through US ports' security saying it "would make it difficult to smuggle radioactive materials into the country".
The dossier also provided details on Paracha's link to money laundering and al Qaeda video production, though the American Civil Liberties Union says the information is unreliable, according to the New York Times.
source: Shippingazette.com / picture: google.com
A 8.9-magnitude earthquake that rocked Japan and unleashed a 10-meter high tsunami may have the potential of affecting Indonesia’s exports to Japan, an official said.
"So exporters, importers and business world alike should be patient or switch to new markets other than Japan," Edy Putra Irawady, deputy for industry and trade to the coordinating minister for economic affairs, said here on Friday.
The natural disaster might also indirectly affect the domestic economy. He said two-way trade between Japan and Indonesia might be disrupted and Japanese investment in Indonesia might decline.
Meanwhile, Chief of the Banking Affairs of the Indonesian Young Businessmen Association (HIPMI) Silmy Karim said the disaster might affect the domestic economy now that Japan was one of Indonesia’s main export destinations. He said the Japanese companies which had so far imported part of their raw materials from Indonesia were expected to reduce their imports.
"Our alumunium and gas exports to Japan will likely fall sharply but such is not the case with CPO and coal exports," he said. He predicted the Japanese economy would soon recover from the disaster although its impact on the Japanese economy would be felt in three to six months’ time thanks to the country’s experience in facing such difficult situation.
Acting Chief of the Fiscal Policy Board (BKF) at the Finance Ministry Bambang Brodjonegoro expressed hope the disaster would have no prolonged impact particularly on the Indonesian economy.
"Japan is relatively more prepared (than any other nations) to deal with the impact of disasters so Friday’s quake and tsunami will likely have a relatively small impact on its economy," he said.
Last year, Indonesia’s non-oil/non-gas exports to Japan hit a record high of US$16.49 billion, making it the biggest market for Indonesia’s exports. In January 2011 alone, Indonesia’s non-oil/non-gas exports to Japan reached US$1.21 billion, accounting for 10.13 percent of its overall non-oil/gas exports in that month.
source: .kompas.com / picture: google.com
Head of Indonesia Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Rusman Heriawan said Indonesia's total exports from January to December 2010 to carve new record in the history of Indonesian exports, which amounted to US$ 157.73 billion.
"A total export from January to December 2010 is US$ 157.73 billion, the latest record for export performance during the history of Indonesian exports," he said in a news conference in his office, Jakarta, Tuesday (01/02/2011). The figure for December 2010 was a highest record export monthly of US$ 16.8 billion.
According BPS data, the rate of export performance throughout 2010 was a growth of 35.38 per cent from the same period in 2009 is US$ 116.51 billion.
Rusman Heriawan said oil exports during January - December 2010 recorded around US$ 129, 68 billion. The largest export commodity is mineral fuels, such as coal US$ 18, 73 billion as well as fat and vegetable oil or palm oil reached US$ 16.29 billion.
BPS noted Indonesia's largest exports are to Japan of US$ 16.5 billion. While export to China around US$ 14.07 billion and the United States amounted to US$ 13.3 billion.
"The contribution of the largest exports are still held by conventional market except China. As for Japan US$ 16.5 billion, China US$ 14.07 billion and United States US$ 13.3 billion. The market share for those three country is 33.85 percent of the country total exports. Meanwhile, exports to the European Union is US$ 17.07 billion, "he explained.
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