Hard-hit by the global crisis, the INDONESIA value of EXPORT in 2012 could be down 20%

Weakening global economic conditions worsened in Europe and the United States (U.S.), making the Ministry of Commerce (Ministry of Trade) must prepare a worst case scenario that the exports of 2012 will go down.

Director General of Foreign Trade Ministry of Trade, Deddy Saleh, said that, if the debt crisis in Europe continues to drag on and the budget deficit in the U.S. is still a constraint weakening demand from Indonesia, the performance of the export value in 2012 could drop up to 20%.

Ministry of Trade predict the realization of the value of exports in 2011 could reach U.S. $ 200 billion. That means, the value of exports in the next year could be only about U.S. $ 160 billion. "But the optimistic predictions of our exports in 2012 will only drop 10% or at least stagnate it is good," said Deddy.

The manufacturing sector is predicted to be the sectors hardest hit by the global crisis in the next year. Meanwhile, exports of primary commodities such as crude palm oil (CPO) can still continue. Because Europe must inevitably take the CPO so that they must continue to import.

Impact of world economic slowdown on the Indonesia export performance is starting to look real. For instance, the total export value in October 2011 decreased 4.2% to U.S. $ 16.8 billion than the previous month. However,realization of export from January to October 2011 is still up 34.9% over the same period in 2010.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's exports to the EU in October 2011 rose 6.2% compared to September 2011. And Indonesia's exports for the same period to the United States is still growing 17.2%.

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Worsening debt crisis, INDONESIA's EXPORTS to Europe will stagnate

Ministry of Industry worrying the European Union financial problems will affect the Indonesia export to Europe. Because, Greece's debt problems spread to other countries in Europe which has the potential to expand the region's financial crisis.

"For me Europe is not too optimistic. Especially if you look at the debt structure of large countries," said Director General of International Cooperation Ministry of Industry Industry, Agus Tjahayana.

According to him, Greece's debt problems will be difficult to prolonged unresolved because the three countries, namely Germany, France, and Britain is expected to help bail out Greece's debt was in trouble. In fact, Germany was difficult to expand its export market as China slammed aggression. "The possibility of its condition deteriorated," he said.

In fact, Indonesia's exports to the EU during the period 2007-2010 recorded an average increase of 9%. That number exceeds the import of industrial products from Europe which reached 8%. In 2010 Indonesia's trade balance with the EU surplus of U.S. $ 4.5 billion.

The amount was donated processed coconut or palm oil with a market share of 20%, textiles and textile products 14.5%, electronics 10.5%, 10.5% of processed rubber, and footwear or shoes 8%.

In fact, certain products have increased sharply as exports of other chemical products rose 147%, 59.4% of other commodities, cigarettes rose by 28.7%, and sports equipment 26.5%.

Unfortunately, the market penetration of industrial products to the EU is still relatively low with an average of about 0.5%. It is actually according to Agus could be an opportunity to expand market share of Indonesian exports. However, the region's financial condition would likely delay the planned expansion of Indonesia's exports.

"It is possible that down then the condition will remain stagnant because Europe needs these commodities," he said.

As with the financial problems the United States. According to Agus, the condition of the country was not too worried because the position of United States economic growth which is growing despite the crisis.

Country's internal political problems that make the financial problems the United States as unresolved. However, he believes, the country will find the solution of the problem.

As a result, most likely the United States - Indonesia trade will be stagnant for some time. Even if rising then the condition is a result of the appreciation of the yuan currency, the rupiah (IDR), Singapore dollar, ringgit, baht and peso. "The effect would be all for all countries for the same commodity," he said.

Indonesia Trade Minister Marie Elka Pangestu also ever mentioned her concern at the condition of the European Union's financial problems. "Compared to the United States, we are more worried about conditions in Europe," she said.

To maintain the level of Indonesia exports due to the decline in market share in both areas, Marie expressed, should be done by enhancing competitiveness, increasing diversification of export markets, and minimize the high cost.

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Garuda Indonesia seriously working on Europe market

Garuda Indonesia seriously working on a number of country markets in the region of Europe, as expanded its businesss internationally. "Operational route is planned in June 2010," said Senior General Manager of Garuda Indonesia East Indonesia Area Suranto, at Surabaya, Thursday (19/11).

According to him, the expansion into the European market was done post-removal restrictions fly there some time ago. "This route is offered to passengers who travel from Jakarta to Amsterdam via Dubai. The flight to the region will use Airbus A330-200 series," he said.

About the reasons for opening the route, Garuda Indonesia Corporate Public Relations of East Indonesia Area Erina Damayanti explained, the market potential in several Middle Eastern countries and the European big. "Moreover, citizens of Amsterdam have an emotional relation with Indonesia," she said.

While the selection of Dubai, Erina said, because the city is the fuel depots before continuing the flight to Europe. "We believe the opening of this route can reach passenger load factor around 80 percent," she said. This route, she added, also a flight destination businesspeople and tourists. So far, the majority of them liked to travel via Dubai before traveling to another country. "In addition, we will add domestic routes," she said.

She pointed out, Garuda Indonesia had added the route Surabaya-Jakarta-Pangkal Pinang, and Surabaya-Denpasar-Kupang. The opening of this flight route as well as a good market opportunity. "Target of load factor was around 80 percent," she said. The route Surabaya-Denpasar-Kupang, she optimistically predicted factornya load exceeds 80 percent, with most of the high season of domestic tourists by the end of the year. At that time, they are a lot of trips to Bali and went to Kupang.