Hard-hit by the global crisis, the INDONESIA value of EXPORT in 2012 could be down 20%

Weakening global economic conditions worsened in Europe and the United States (U.S.), making the Ministry of Commerce (Ministry of Trade) must prepare a worst case scenario that the exports of 2012 will go down.

Director General of Foreign Trade Ministry of Trade, Deddy Saleh, said that, if the debt crisis in Europe continues to drag on and the budget deficit in the U.S. is still a constraint weakening demand from Indonesia, the performance of the export value in 2012 could drop up to 20%.

Ministry of Trade predict the realization of the value of exports in 2011 could reach U.S. $ 200 billion. That means, the value of exports in the next year could be only about U.S. $ 160 billion. "But the optimistic predictions of our exports in 2012 will only drop 10% or at least stagnate it is good," said Deddy.

The manufacturing sector is predicted to be the sectors hardest hit by the global crisis in the next year. Meanwhile, exports of primary commodities such as crude palm oil (CPO) can still continue. Because Europe must inevitably take the CPO so that they must continue to import.

Impact of world economic slowdown on the Indonesia export performance is starting to look real. For instance, the total export value in October 2011 decreased 4.2% to U.S. $ 16.8 billion than the previous month. However,realization of export from January to October 2011 is still up 34.9% over the same period in 2010.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's exports to the EU in October 2011 rose 6.2% compared to September 2011. And Indonesia's exports for the same period to the United States is still growing 17.2%.

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Worsening debt crisis, INDONESIA's EXPORTS to Europe will stagnate

Ministry of Industry worrying the European Union financial problems will affect the Indonesia export to Europe. Because, Greece's debt problems spread to other countries in Europe which has the potential to expand the region's financial crisis.

"For me Europe is not too optimistic. Especially if you look at the debt structure of large countries," said Director General of International Cooperation Ministry of Industry Industry, Agus Tjahayana.

According to him, Greece's debt problems will be difficult to prolonged unresolved because the three countries, namely Germany, France, and Britain is expected to help bail out Greece's debt was in trouble. In fact, Germany was difficult to expand its export market as China slammed aggression. "The possibility of its condition deteriorated," he said.

In fact, Indonesia's exports to the EU during the period 2007-2010 recorded an average increase of 9%. That number exceeds the import of industrial products from Europe which reached 8%. In 2010 Indonesia's trade balance with the EU surplus of U.S. $ 4.5 billion.

The amount was donated processed coconut or palm oil with a market share of 20%, textiles and textile products 14.5%, electronics 10.5%, 10.5% of processed rubber, and footwear or shoes 8%.

In fact, certain products have increased sharply as exports of other chemical products rose 147%, 59.4% of other commodities, cigarettes rose by 28.7%, and sports equipment 26.5%.

Unfortunately, the market penetration of industrial products to the EU is still relatively low with an average of about 0.5%. It is actually according to Agus could be an opportunity to expand market share of Indonesian exports. However, the region's financial condition would likely delay the planned expansion of Indonesia's exports.

"It is possible that down then the condition will remain stagnant because Europe needs these commodities," he said.

As with the financial problems the United States. According to Agus, the condition of the country was not too worried because the position of United States economic growth which is growing despite the crisis.

Country's internal political problems that make the financial problems the United States as unresolved. However, he believes, the country will find the solution of the problem.

As a result, most likely the United States - Indonesia trade will be stagnant for some time. Even if rising then the condition is a result of the appreciation of the yuan currency, the rupiah (IDR), Singapore dollar, ringgit, baht and peso. "The effect would be all for all countries for the same commodity," he said.

Indonesia Trade Minister Marie Elka Pangestu also ever mentioned her concern at the condition of the European Union's financial problems. "Compared to the United States, we are more worried about conditions in Europe," she said.

To maintain the level of Indonesia exports due to the decline in market share in both areas, Marie expressed, should be done by enhancing competitiveness, increasing diversification of export markets, and minimize the high cost.

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Lion Air focus to Perth and Sydney, Australia

Although not included in the removal of the embargo, PT Lion Mentari Airlines (Lion Air) are not bothered by the possibility is not given the green light to fly over Europe. The owner of Lion Air, Rusdi Kirana said, Lion Air was precisely in the middle of the focus to be able to fly to Perth and Sydney, Australia in the near future.

“We have no problem does not pass the presentation in front of the EU commission. Yet all this time we are also not interested to fly there yet," said Lion Air General Director Edward Sirait, in Jakarta.

Lion Air is preparing the licensing procedures to be able to fly to Australia, including preparing the necessary documents when later the Australian aviation authorities, the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA), will visit Jakarta to conduct an audit on performance of this airlines that choose the type of service no frills.

"Our plan will fly to Australia from Denpasar, Bali, which is attractive to tourists from there. We hope the end of this year could be realized, but it all depends on the other side," he said.

On June 30, 2010, Lion Air had received two Boeing 737-900 ER which flown directly from the manufacturer in Seattle, the United States with registration number PK-LOW and PK-LGW. So far,  Lion Air already operates 36 Boeing 737-900 ER of 178 similar aircraft which has ordered. Until the end of this year, Lion Air is targeting 43 units can operate the aircraft type was.

Garuda Indonesia seriously working on Europe market

Garuda Indonesia seriously working on a number of country markets in the region of Europe, as expanded its businesss internationally. "Operational route is planned in June 2010," said Senior General Manager of Garuda Indonesia East Indonesia Area Suranto, at Surabaya, Thursday (19/11).

According to him, the expansion into the European market was done post-removal restrictions fly there some time ago. "This route is offered to passengers who travel from Jakarta to Amsterdam via Dubai. The flight to the region will use Airbus A330-200 series," he said.

About the reasons for opening the route, Garuda Indonesia Corporate Public Relations of East Indonesia Area Erina Damayanti explained, the market potential in several Middle Eastern countries and the European big. "Moreover, citizens of Amsterdam have an emotional relation with Indonesia," she said.

While the selection of Dubai, Erina said, because the city is the fuel depots before continuing the flight to Europe. "We believe the opening of this route can reach passenger load factor around 80 percent," she said. This route, she added, also a flight destination businesspeople and tourists. So far, the majority of them liked to travel via Dubai before traveling to another country. "In addition, we will add domestic routes," she said.

She pointed out, Garuda Indonesia had added the route Surabaya-Jakarta-Pangkal Pinang, and Surabaya-Denpasar-Kupang. The opening of this flight route as well as a good market opportunity. "Target of load factor was around 80 percent," she said. The route Surabaya-Denpasar-Kupang, she optimistically predicted factornya load exceeds 80 percent, with most of the high season of domestic tourists by the end of the year. At that time, they are a lot of trips to Bali and went to Kupang.

Indonesia CPO obstructed by UE rules

Exports of Indonesia crude palm oil (CPO) Indonesia to countries of the European Union threatened to halt a few years ahead. This is the impact of EU rules on the use of renewable energy from renewable sources and environmental issues surrounding palm oil. Therefore, according to the Secretary General of the Combined Enterprise Indonesian Palm Oil (Gapki) Joko Supriyono, Sunday (13 / 9) in Jakarta, Indonesia began to glance at the new market of CPO in Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Nevertheless, the European Union can not leave because of the potential market including CPO Indonesia.

From the data, the total volume of Indonesian CPO exports in 2008 reached 7,904,179 tons. Of that amount, as much as 968,205 tons of which are exported to the European Union via the port in the Netherlands. Some other export destination countries include India, China, and Singapore. European markets is the export destination for the second largest of Indonesia CPO, after India.

To be able to sell palm oil to the European Union and incentives, according to Chairman of Indonesian Palm Oil Commission Rosediana Suharto, the exporter must meet the criteria of the EU directive on the use of renewable energy. If do not meet the criteria in the directive, there is no incentive and no EU country would want to buy that commodity. European Parliament approved the directive on April 23, 2009. Renewable energy target by 2020 is 20 per cent of the countries in the European Union, 20 percent of energy efficiency improvements, 20 percent use of renewable energy, 10 percent use of renewable energy in the transportation sector.

One of the alternative way to anticipate the application of the rule is to expand export markets to other countries, like China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and countries in Eastern Europe. "Surely the new market expansion must have the support of the government. Business actors would be difficult to walk alone, "he added.